NDA Expected to Secure Majority in Bihar Elections 2025 According to Pre-Poll Surveys

Bihar Elections for the 243 seats are being conducted in two phases to ensure logistical feasibility and security across the state.

The political landscape of Bihar appears poised for a significant outcome in the forthcoming 2025 Assembly Elections, with pre-poll surveys strongly suggesting a commanding victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). As the state approaches the crucial first phase of polling, the “Polstrat” opinion poll, along with corroboration from the “Chanakya” survey, paints a picture of a decisive mandate in favour of the ruling coalition, projecting a substantial majority of between 133 and 143 seats out of the total 243 seats in the State Legislative Assembly.

The Opinion Poll Landscape: NDA’s Projected Dominance

The aggregated data from the Polstrat survey indicates that the NDA is well-positioned to surpass the simple majority mark of 122 seats. Within the NDA, the BJP alone is anticipated to emerge as the single largest party, potentially securing between 70 and 72 seats. Its key ally, the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), is projected to contribute between 53 and 56 seats to the tally. Smaller allies, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), are expected to bring in 10 to 12 and 0 to 2 seats, respectively.

Conversely, the opposition bloc, the Mahagathbandhan, is projected to secure a respectable but distant tally, falling in the range of 93 to 102 seats. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the dominant force in the alliance, is estimated to get between 69 and 72 seats. The Indian National Congress is predicted to secure 10 to 13 seats, with the remaining seats being split between smaller partners like the Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP) and the Indian Inclusive Party (IIP).

The political sphere also anticipates the entry of new players into the assembly. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party is likely to open its account, with an estimated capture of one to three seats. Furthermore, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is also expected to secure two to three seats, alongside one seat for the Janshakti Janata Dal and one to two seats for Independent candidates.

The Chanakya poll reinforces this trend, projecting the NDA to win between 128 and 134 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is estimated to secure 102 to 108 seats, with the AIMIM-led GDA alliance and others making up the remainder.

Decoding Voter Demographics and Key Issues

The Polstrat survey provided deeper insight into the voter sentiment by examining vote shares and age-group preferences. The NDA’s overall projected vote share stands at a robust 44.80 percent, offering a notable advantage over the Mahagathbandhan’s 38.60 percent.

Analysis across age demographics reveals a clear split. The 41 to 59 age group shows a distinct preference for the NDA. This support strengthens among the 26 to 40 age bracket, where the NDA’s backing rises to 43.18 percent. However, a critical observation is the leaning of the 18 to 25 age group, where the Mahagathbandhan is the first choice for the electorate. This youth inclination is directly correlated with the foremost concern dominating their minds: unemployment, which was cited as the top issue by 37.99 percent of the youth surveyed. This suggests that while the incumbent alliance might be holding the centre ground and older voters, job creation and economic opportunity remain significant motivational factors for the younger generation to vote for the opposition.

The perceived success of the NDA in these polls is often attributed to the visibility and implementation of government welfare schemes and the party’s strong organizational machinery across the state, which allows for effective last-mile campaign execution.

The Campaign Narrative and Electoral Battleground

The campaigning period, culminating just before the first phase of polling on November 6, has been marked by high-intensity rhetoric from both sides. The NDA has focused on its development narrative and governance record, with prominent leaders launching campaigns across districts. Conversely, the Mahagathbandhan, having declared Tejashwi Yadav as its Chief Ministerial face early on, has centered its pitch heavily on the promise of immediate government employment for every household, directly targeting the major concern voiced by the youth.

The entry of new political entities like Jan Suraj Party into the fray adds a layer of complexity, potentially fragmenting traditional caste arithmetic and vote banks, which historically have been the bedrock of Bihar politics. The performance of these smaller players, even with a handful of seats, could prove decisive in influencing the final margin in tightly contested constituencies.

The extensive nature of the Polstrat survey, which incorporated the opinions of 8,42,322 individuals across the state, lends significant weight to its projections, indicating a clear path towards a majority for the incumbent alliance, provided the voting trends hold true on the ground.

FAQs