New Delhi – For the first time ever, the Indian rupee slipped past the psychologically important 90 mark against the US dollar today, touching a record low of 90.30 during early trading. This sharp fall has left many Indians worried about higher prices for everything from petrol to iPhones. But in a calm voice amid the market storm, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said there’s no need to lose sleep over it. “I’m not losing sleep over it,” he told reporters at a Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) event in the capital. “Right now, it is not impacting inflation or exports.”
The rupee opened at 89.96 this morning but quickly dropped to 90.15, before closing provisionally at 90.21 – down 25 paise from yesterday’s close. This makes it the weakest level on record, and the currency has lost nearly 5% against the dollar in 2025 alone. Traders say the slide could go deeper if things don’t change soon. But Nageswaran, who advises the government on big economic matters, thinks the rupee will bounce back next year. “It will come back in 2026,” he added, pointing to better global conditions ahead.
This isn’t just a number on a screen. A weaker rupee affects daily life – from the cost of imported rice in your kitchen to the price tag on a new smartphone. But experts like Nageswaran say the good parts, like cheaper Indian goods for buyers abroad, might balance out the bad. Let’s break it down step by step: what caused this fall, how it’s hitting your pocket, and why the government isn’t hitting the panic button.
What Happened Today in the Markets?
Picture this: Markets open at 9 am, and within minutes, the rupee is tumbling. By 9:30 am, it had crossed 90 for the first time – a level many thought we’d avoid. Forex traders at banks like HDFC and ICICI were busy buying dollars for importers, while sellers were few and far between. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against other currencies, stayed strong above 100, adding to the pressure.
By midday, the rupee hit 90.30 – its deepest low yet. That’s when Nageswaran spoke up. Speaking on the sidelines of the CII event, he said the government’s top economists aren’t worried. “The weakness has had no impact on inflation,” he explained. Exports, he added, are actually getting a quiet boost because Indian products look cheaper to foreign buyers. For context, just a week ago, the rupee was hovering around 89.50. The slide picked up speed after US tariffs on Indian goods kicked in last month, scaring off investors.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, who took over earlier this year, has been watching closely. The central bank sold dollars worth about $1 billion today to steady things, but not enough to stop the fall. Sources say RBI wants the rupee to find its own level – a “crawl-like” depreciation, as one trader called it – to avoid burning through reserves too fast. India’s forex kitty stands at $654 billion now, down from a peak of $700 billion last year.
Why Did the Rupee Fall So Hard This Year?
The rupee didn’t crash overnight. It’s been sliding for months, and 2025 has been especially tough. Here’s the simple story behind it:
- Foreign Investors Pulling Out Money: Big funds from the US and Europe have sold Indian stocks and bonds like hot potatoes. They’ve taken out over $17 billion this year – that’s more than the entire budget of some states. Why? Higher interest rates in America make US bonds safer and better paying. Plus, with global tensions like the Ukraine war dragging on, investors want “safe” dollars, not risky rupees.
- Stuck Trade Talks with the US: India and the US have been negotiating a big trade deal for over a year. But talks hit a wall last month, and now America has slapped 50% tariffs on things like Indian steel and textiles. This hurts our exports, which were already slowing. Without a deal, businesses are nervous, and money is flowing out faster.
- Big Import Bills: India buys a lot from abroad – oil for cars, gold for weddings, electronics for phones. In October alone, imports jumped 16% to $76 billion, thanks to festive gold buying. Exports grew only 4%, leaving a huge gap. We need dollars to pay for all this, so when demand rises, the rupee weakens.
- Strong Dollar Worldwide: The US Federal Reserve has kept rates high to fight inflation there. This makes the dollar king. Other Asian currencies like the Indonesian rupiah are down too, but India’s fall is the worst – over 5% this year.
- Homegrown Worries: Inflation here is at 5.5%, higher than the US’s 2.5%. That makes the rupee less attractive. Plus, with elections in some states and global slowdown fears, speculators are betting against it.
Uday Kotak, boss of Kotak Mahindra Bank, put it bluntly on X: “₹@90… Shake out of your comfort zone.” He means Indian companies need to export more and import less to fix this.
Is This Fall Hurting the Economy? Nageswaran Says No – But Here’s the Real Picture
Nageswaran isn’t alone in staying calm. NITI Aayog’s former Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar tweeted yesterday: “Nothing to worry about Rupee depreciating… it encourages labour intensive exports from India, increases foreign exchange earnings and generates more jobs.” A weak rupee does make Indian shirts, software, and medicines cheaper abroad, boosting sales. Pharma and IT firms could see 10-15% more rupee earnings from the same dollar sales.
But it’s not all good news. A weaker rupee means everything imported costs more, and India imports 85% of its oil. Petrol could rise by Rs 2-3 per litre soon, pushing up truck and taxi fares. Food prices might climb too, as imported pulses and edible oils get pricier. Inflation, which was cooling at 4.5% last month, could tick up by 0.5-1% if this lasts.
For families, it’s tough. If you’re sending a son to study in the US, tuition that cost Rs 25 lakh last year now needs Rs 28 lakh. Travel abroad? A $1,000 flight to London jumps from Rs 83,000 to Rs 90,000. EMIs on dollar loans for companies mean higher costs passed to you.
On the flip side, jobs in export hubs like Tirupur (textiles) or Bengaluru (IT) could grow. Remittances from NRIs – $100 billion last year – will buy more rupees now. And tourism: Foreigners get more for their dollars, so more visitors to Goa beaches.
Economists like Sakshi Gupta from HDFC Bank say: “The longer it takes for a trade deal, the longer the pressure on the rupee.” She sees it at 92-93 by March if no fix. But Nageswaran bets on recovery: “If it has to depreciate, now probably is the right time” – before inflation picks up.
What Happens Next? RBI’s Big Meeting This Week
All eyes are on the RBI’s policy meeting starting today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will decide on interest rates Friday. Most expect a 25 basis point cut to boost growth, but the weak rupee might make them pause. Higher rates could attract dollars back, but hurt loans for homes and cars.
RBI has tools: Sell more dollars, tighten rules on outflows, or even talk up the rupee. But with reserves dipping, they can’t do it forever. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said last week: “The rupee’s fall has been gradual and in line with emerging market trends.” Her team is pushing for faster local manufacturing to cut imports – think “Make in India” on steroids.
Globally, if the US cuts rates in 2026 as expected, dollars could weaken, helping the rupee. A trade deal by year-end? That could bring it back to 88-89 fast.
Voices from the Ground: What Indians Are Saying
On X, reactions are mixed. Trader Sunil Gurjar posted: “Rupee at ₹90.02 – costlier imports, inflation pressure, but exporters benefit. Will it hit 95?” Over 2,400 views, with many agreeing travel and education costs are skyrocketing.
Businessman Prakash Dadlani wrote a long thread: “A weaker rupee means more global orders, factory shifts, jobs. But imports hurt – so make more in India.” It got 869 likes, showing hope amid worry.
Critics like activist LILENDRA MEHRA vented: “1 USD = ₹90. Rupee nearing century – what’s the reason, Modi ji? Depreciation 44% in 11 years.” Political jabs aside, most posts call for calm and action.
Even opposition leader P Chidambaram chipped in: “Rupee at 90 is a red flag. Time for RBI to act boldly, not just watch.”
The Bigger Story: Rupee’s Long Journey from 10 to 90
Remember 1985? One dollar bought just Rs 12. By 2000, it was Rs 45. Under UPA in 2014, it hit Rs 63. Now at 90 under NDA – a 43% drop in 11 years. It’s not unusual for growing economies; Turkey’s lira fell 80% in five years. But for India, with $4 trillion GDP dreams, stability matters.
Nageswaran wrapped up: “We may cross $100 billion in FDI this year.” That’s foreign direct investment – factories and tech coming in. If that happens, it could steady the ship.
FAQ – Your Questions Answered on Rupee at 90
Q1. Will petrol and grocery prices go up because of the weak rupee?
Yes, but not overnight. Oil imports cost more, so expect Rs 2-3 hike in fuel soon. Groceries like imported cooking oil could rise 5-10%. But government subsidies might cap the pain. Keep an eye on your monthly budget – add Rs 500-1,000 for extras.
Q2. Is this good for my job or business?
If you work in exports – IT, garments, pharma – yes! Your company earns more rupees per dollar. Remittances from Gulf jobs? You’ll get 10% more. But importers like electronics shops face higher costs, so prices up. MSMEs in between should hedge dollars now.
Q3. When will the rupee recover to 85 or 80?
CEA says 2026 for improvement, maybe back to 88 by mid-year if trade deal happens. Analysts like Ajay Kedia predict 88.90 support level soon. But if outflows continue, 92 by March. RBI’s December 5 decision could give clues.
Q4. Should I buy dollars now or wait?
If traveling soon, buy now – it might get worse. For investments, rupee-dollar ETFs are safer. Don’t panic-sell gold; it’s up 15% this year as a hedge. Talk to a bank advisor.
Q5. How is RBI helping? Will they print more rupees?
No printing – that causes hyperinflation. RBI sells dollars from reserves to buy rupees, steadying it. They’ve spent $36 billion since August. Next MPC might signal more support without big cuts.
Q6. Is India’s economy in trouble because of this?
Not yet. GDP grew 7% last quarter, stocks are up 12% yearly. Weak rupee is a symptom, not the disease. Fix trade deficit and attract FDI – that’s the real cure.
Stay Smart, Not Scared
The rupee at 90 feels like a gut punch, but Nageswaran’s words ring true: It’s not breaking the bank yet. Exports get a lift, jobs might follow, and recovery is on the horizon. But for you and me, it’s a reminder to watch spending on imports and push for more “Made in India.”
This is India’s story – ups, downs, and resilience. Keep checking RBI updates, and remember: A strong economy isn’t about one number; it’s about smart moves ahead. What’s your take? Share in comments.