Kolkata – West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has strongly rejected all exit poll predictions that came out after the two-phase West Bengal Assembly Election 2026. Speaking in a video message late on April 29, the day the second and final phase of polling concluded, Banerjee said the exit polls were “paid for and forced” and alleged they had been prepared according to a circular issued by the BJP. She expressed full faith in the voters of Bengal and predicted that her party, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), would win more than 226 seats when results are declared on May 4, 2026.
This comes after weeks of heated campaigning, high voter turnout across both phases, and fresh allegations of violence, EVM malfunctions, and voter intimidation that marked the election season. The battle for Bengal’s 294-seat assembly is being watched closely as one of the most important state elections in recent Indian political history.
What Mamata Banerjee Said — Her Full Stand Against Exit Polls
In her video message, Mamata Banerjee thanked the people of Bengal for voting despite “scorching heat and atrocities.” She praised TMC workers for what she described as fighting against the combined machinery of the central government, the Prime Minister, the Home Minister, and BJP leaders brought in from 19 states.
She said, “I want to assure you that the exit polls are paid for and forced, and are as per a circular from the BJP’s office to the media. We are going to cross 226 seats in 2026. I have full faith in the voters.”
Banerjee also urged all TMC candidates and agents to guard their respective booths and counting centres. She went one step further and alleged that the BJP had planned to tamper with Electronic Voting Machines while they were being transported to counting centres — an allegation that has not been independently verified.
Reaffirming her belief in the “Maa-Mati-Manush” slogan that has defined her political journey since 2011, she said the TMC government enjoys strong public backing across West Bengal and that her party was on course for a fourth consecutive term in power.
What Exit Polls Say — BJP Projected to Win, But History Says Be Careful
Multiple exit polls released on the evening of April 29, 2026, after polling closed, painted a very different picture from what Mamata Banerjee predicted.
The consolidated “Poll of Polls” average from multiple top agencies places the BJP at 155 seats — above the majority mark of 148 in the 294-seat assembly. The Matrize exit poll predicted a BJP win in the range of 146 to 161 seats. The P-MARQ poll gave an even higher projection of 150 to 175 seats for the BJP. These numbers, if true, would mean the BJP would end the TMC’s 15-year rule in Bengal.
However, exit polls in Bengal have a history of getting things spectacularly wrong.
In the 2021 West Bengal Assembly Election, many surveys — including a version of the P-MARQ poll — predicted the BJP would win between 150 and 175 seats. The actual results were the complete opposite. The TMC won a landslide with 215 out of 294 seats. The BJP fell far short, winning only around 77 seats. That massive miss by almost every poll agency is a major reason why both the TMC and many political observers are treating the 2026 exit polls with caution.
As one political analyst put it, exit polls capture a certain kind of voter voice — but not always the full picture. Rural women voters, first-time voters, and people voting on very local issues often do not show up in exit poll numbers the way they do in actual ballot boxes.
Record Voter Turnout — What the Numbers Mean
One of the most striking features of the 2026 Bengal election has been the extraordinary voter turnout in both phases.
In the first phase held on April 23, 2026, covering 152 constituencies, voter turnout was already high. In the second and final phase on April 29, 2026, covering the remaining 142 constituencies — including South Bengal and Kolkata — official data from the Election Commission of India showed a turnout of 91.31% by 6 PM. By 7 PM, the Purba Bardhaman district recorded a staggering 92.46%, Hooghly stood at 90.34%, and Howrah recorded 89.44%.
Chief Election Commissioner of India Gyanesh Kumar called it “the highest ever percentage of polling in West Bengal in both Phase I and Phase II since Independence.” He described it as “Chunav ka Parv, Paschim Bengal ka Garv” — a Festival of Elections, Bengal’s Pride.
High voter turnout in Bengal is generally considered good news for the ruling party, as it often reflects mobilisation of loyal voters. But in 2026, with intense anti-incumbency and identity issues on the ground, the high turnout has been read differently by different parties.
Violence, EVM Complaints and Security Deployment
The 2026 Bengal election was not without trouble on the ground. Sporadic violence and clashes between party workers were reported in several districts including Hooghly, Howrah, and Nadia during both phases. The Election Commission monitored reports of EVM tampering and voter intimidation.
One notable moment came in Bhabanipur constituency, where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee — herself a candidate — and BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari arrived at the same polling booth area on April 29. The two leaders took open swipes at each other, with Adhikari saying Mamata had arrived with “too many people” and was spreading fear. Banerjee did not respond directly.
A clash between TMC and ISF supporters was reported at Booth No. 147 in Ramchandrapur in Hooghly’s Khanakul area over allegations of fake polling agents. Voting was briefly halted at Ward Number 72 in Baranagar after the EVM reportedly malfunctioned five times.
To maintain order, the Election Commission deployed over 3.5 lakh Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) personnel across the state — including the National Investigation Agency (NIA), which was deployed in a state election for the first time ever. Hundreds of companies of CAPF were asked to remain even after voting concluded.
The Real Issues That Shaped This Election
This election was not fought on one single issue. It was shaped by several interconnected concerns that voters across different communities prioritised differently.
Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of Voter Rolls: The single biggest controversy of the 2026 Bengal election was the deletion of around 90 lakh (9 million) voter names from the electoral rolls under the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision process. This was about 12% of the total electorate. Of those removed, over 60 lakh were categorised as absentee or deceased, while the status of around 27 lakh names remained under tribunal scrutiny during the campaign itself.
The TMC argued that the exercise was a deliberate attempt to disenfranchise genuine voters — particularly Muslims and Dalit Hindus from the Matua community. The BJP defended it as a clean-up of bogus entries linked to illegal migrants. Analysts noted that roughly 65% of the pending cases involved Muslim voters. The issue was under judicial scrutiny throughout the campaign period and triggered widespread protests, road blockades, and confrontations at election offices across the state.
Employment and Jobs: Unemployment remained a deep concern, especially among the youth and urban voters. Questions about delayed government recruitment examinations, the high-profile school jobs scam, and the lack of private investment in Bengal were regularly raised on the campaign trail. The BJP kept jobs and industrial revival at the centre of its attack on the TMC government, while the TMC highlighted its welfare schemes and infrastructure projects.
CAA and Matua Politics: The Citizenship Amendment Act remained a significant factor in constituencies with large Matua populations — mainly in North and South 24 Parganas and Nadia. The BJP held the Matua-majority region largely since 2019 and 2021. However, the SIR deletions affected tens of thousands of Matua families, creating visible anger and confusion. Despite this, ground reports suggest that the BJP’s political message on citizenship may have prevented a full-scale swing against them among Matua voters.
Anti-incumbency: After 15 years of continuous TMC rule, anti-incumbency was a real factor — particularly in urban centres like Kolkata. Governance, corruption, and law-and-order issues were discussed alongside the bigger identity debates, but these concerns weighed more heavily in cities than in rural Bengal.
Bengali Identity (Asmita): Both sides pitched themselves as true protectors of Bengali culture and identity. The TMC’s message of “Banglar Gorbo, Mamata” (Bengal’s Pride, Mamata) was countered by the BJP’s campaign of national security and border protection framing. This cultural battle played out in rallies, slogan wars, and social media.
Security on an Unprecedented Scale
The scale of security deployment for the 2026 Bengal elections was unlike anything seen in a state election before. Over 3.5 lakh security personnel were stationed across 294 constituencies. The involvement of the NIA — a central agency usually deployed for terrorism and organised crime cases — in a state election drew both attention and controversy.
The Election Commission said the deployment was necessary given the state’s history of poll-related violence. TMC leaders called it a politically motivated show of central force, while the BJP said it was necessary to ensure free and fair elections.
What Happens Next — Counting on May 4
All eyes are now on May 4, 2026, when the votes will be counted and results declared. The tenure of the current West Bengal Legislative Assembly ends on May 7, 2026, leaving barely three days for a new government to be formed after results.
The final voter count for the 2026 Bengal elections stood at 6.82 crore (68.25 million), after the addition of names through supplementary lists following the SIR controversy. The election was held across 294 constituencies in two phases — 152 seats on April 23 and 142 seats on April 29.
If exit polls are right, the BJP could win its first-ever state government in West Bengal. If history repeats itself, as it did in 2021, Mamata Banerjee could return for a fourth term. There is no middle ground. Someone is going to be very wrong. The answer comes on May 4.
Quotes and Statements Worth Noting
Mamata Banerjee (TMC, West Bengal CM): “I want to assure you that the exit polls are paid for and forced, and are as per a circular from the BJP’s office to the media. We are going to cross 226 seats in 2026. I have full faith in the voters.”
Suvendu Adhikari (BJP, Leader of Opposition, Bengal): “Mamata Banerjee has brought so many people to spread fear. She has the right to visit polling booths but she should do it with only her bodyguards like I am doing.” (Said at Bhabanipur booth on April 29, 2026.)
Gyanesh Kumar (Chief Election Commissioner of India): “Highest ever percentage of polling in West Bengal in both Phase I and II since Independence — Chunav ka Parv, Paschim Bengal ka Garv.”
Rudranil Ghosh (BJP candidate, Shibpur, Howrah): “Voting for myself has been the most exciting experience of my life. People of Shibpur have shown so much faith in me that I have nothing but gratitude towards them.”
FAQs
Q1. Why has Mamata Banerjee rejected the exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal election?
Mamata Banerjee has called the exit polls “paid for and forced,” alleging that they were prepared based on instructions from the BJP. In her video message after voting concluded on April 29, 2026, she said these polls are designed to demoralise TMC workers and create false public opinion. She expressed full confidence that the TMC would win more than 226 seats and urged supporters to stay strong and guard counting centres.
Q2. What are the exit poll projections for the West Bengal 2026 election?
Multiple exit polls released on April 29, 2026 project a BJP win. The consolidated “Poll of Polls” average places the BJP at around 155 seats — above the majority mark of 148 in the 294-seat assembly. The Matrize poll gives the BJP 146–161 seats, while the P-MARQ poll projects BJP at 150–175 seats. TMC is projected to win between 118 and 138 seats in most surveys.
Q3. When will the West Bengal 2026 election results be declared?
The counting of votes will take place on May 4, 2026, and results will be declared on the same day. The tenure of the current West Bengal Legislative Assembly ends on May 7, 2026. A new government must be formed within this period.
Q4. Were exit polls wrong in the 2021 Bengal election too?
Yes, significantly. In 2021, most exit polls predicted a BJP win with 150–175 seats. The actual results were the complete opposite — the TMC won 215 out of 294 seats, while the BJP won only around 77. This massive failure of exit polls in 2021 is why many analysts urge caution in reading the 2026 projections.
Q5. What was the voter turnout in the 2026 West Bengal elections?
Voter turnout was exceptionally high in both phases. In Phase 2 on April 29, 2026, official figures showed over 91% polling. The Chief Election Commissioner of India called it “the highest ever in West Bengal in both phases since Independence.” In Phase 1 on April 23, 2026, turnout was also high across the 152 seats that voted.
Q6. What were the main issues in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly Election?
The 2026 Bengal election revolved around several major issues. The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls, which deleted around 90 lakh names, became the biggest controversy. Other major issues included unemployment and jobs, especially the school jobs scam; the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and its impact on the Matua community; border security and alleged illegal migration; anti-incumbency after 15 years of TMC rule; and Bengali cultural identity.
Q7. What is the SIR controversy and why did it matter in the 2026 Bengal election?
SIR refers to the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls carried out by the Election Commission before the 2026 Bengal elections. Around 90 lakh (9 million) voter names were deleted from the rolls — about 12% of the total electorate. The TMC alleged this was disenfranchising genuine voters, particularly Muslims and Dalits from the Matua community. The BJP said it was removing bogus entries linked to illegal migrants. The matter remained under judicial scrutiny even as voting took place, making it a highly charged issue.
Q8. How much security was deployed for the West Bengal 2026 elections?
The Election Commission deployed over 3.5 lakh (350,000) Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) personnel across West Bengal for both phases. Notably, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) was deployed in a state election for the first time ever. CAPF companies were also asked to remain deployed even after voting concluded, till counting on May 4.
Q9. What is the “Maa-Mati-Manush” slogan and why does it matter?
“Maa-Mati-Manush” means “Mother, Soil, People” in Bengali. It has been the founding slogan of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress since 2011, when she defeated the Left Front government that had ruled Bengal for 34 years. It stands for her connection to the land, ordinary people, and Bengali identity. By invoking it again in 2026, Banerjee is positioning the election as a fight to protect Bengal’s people and culture against what she describes as outside political forces.
Q10. Who is Suvendu Adhikari and what role does he play in Bengal 2026?
Suvendu Adhikari is the BJP’s Leader of Opposition in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. He was earlier a senior TMC leader and close aide of Mamata Banerjee before switching to the BJP in 2020. In 2021, he defeated Mamata Banerjee herself in the Nandigram constituency. He has been the face of the BJP’s campaign in Bengal in 2026 alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.